Even though the Academy Awards will be broadcast in late February, the
season officially gets under way this week.
The first group of critics will give their year-end awards, and the
Critic’s Choice Award nominations will be announced. In honor of the start of the season, I want
to give my early predictions—along with assumptions on who will win based on
what we know right now.
Best Picture
Fences
Hell or High Water
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Silence
Or it could be: Loving, Hidden Figures, Arrival, Sully, or Patriots Day
Predicted winner: La La Land, which appears to be picking
up steam. This sort of film is the
escapism that Hollywood is eager to embrace right now.
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by
the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Or it could be: Denzel
Washington, Fences; Pablo Larrain, Jackie; Jeff Nichols, Loving; David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water; or Garth Davis, Lion
Predicted winner: Damien
Chazelle, La La Land. Until the race shapes otherwise, I don’t have
any reason to think that La La Land
wouldn’t prevail here as well.
Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the
Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences
Or it could be: Andrew Garfield
in either Hacksaw Ridge or Silence; Viggo Mortensen in Captain Fantastic; Warren Beatty in Rules Don’t Apply; or Matthew McConaughey
in Gold
Predicted winner: Denzel
Washington in Fences. He won a Tony award for his performance in
the play, and advance word on his performance is strong. Casey Affleck is a good alternative, although
I think he’s destined to finish in second.
Best Actress
Annette Bening, 20th
Century Women
Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Or it could be: Meryl Streep in Florence Foster Jenkins; Isabelle
Huppert in Elle; Amy Adams in Arrival; Kate Beckinsale in Love & Friendship; or Jessica
Chastain in Miss Sloane
Predicted winner: Natalie
Portman in Jackie, unless Emma Stone
starts to pick up momentum.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster
Jenkins
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the
Sea
Liam Neeson, Silence
Or it could be: Peter Sarsgaard
in Jackie; Dev Patel in Lion; Mykelti Williamson in Fences; Stephen Henderson in Fences; or Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals
Predicted winner: I guess Liam
Neeson, but nobody has seen his performance yet. I’m not sure who would be an alternative.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Greta Gerwig, 20th
Century Women
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, Manchester by
the Sea
Or it could be: Molly Shannon in
Other People; Janelle Monae in Hidden Figures; Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures; Margo Martindale in The Hollars; or Lupita Nyong’o in Queen of Katwe
Predicted winner: It looks like
Viola Davis has this sewn up in November.
Best Original Screenplay
Captain Fantastic
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Or it could be: Zootopia, 20th Century Women, Jackie,
The Lobster, or Loving
Predicted winner: Manchester by the Sea, but I could see
it being Moonlight if they like it
enough.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Lion
Love & Friendship
Silence
Or it could be: Hidden Figures, Sully, Indignation, Hacksaw Ridge, or Live By Night
Predicted winner: Fences, unless Silence impresses.
Predicted winners in the other categories (except the shorts, because
those are too unpredictable):
Best Editing: La La
Land (alt: Silence)
Best Cinematography: La La
Land (alt: Silence)
Best Costume Design: Florence
Foster Jenkins (alt: Jackie)
Best Production Design: La La
Land (alt: Silence)
Best Makeup and Hair: Silence
(alt: Florence Foster Jenkins)
Best Visual Effects: The
Jungle Book (alt: Rogue One)
Best Original Score: Arrival
(alt: Jackie)
Best Original Song: “How Far
I’ll Go” from Moana (alt: “City of Stars”
from La La Land)
Best Foreign Language Film: Toni
Erdman (alt: The Idol)
Best Animated Feature: Zootopia
(alt: Moana)
Best Documentary Feature: 13th
(alt: Weiner)