Academy Award predictions (as of 11/28/16)

Even though the Academy Awards will be broadcast in late February, the season officially gets under way this week.  The first group of critics will give their year-end awards, and the Critic’s Choice Award nominations will be announced.  In honor of the start of the season, I want to give my early predictions—along with assumptions on who will win based on what we know right now.

Best Picture

Fences

Hell or High Water

Jackie

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Silence

Or it could be:  Loving, Hidden Figures, Arrival, Sully, or Patriots Day

Predicted winner:  La La Land, which appears to be picking up steam.  This sort of film is the escapism that Hollywood is eager to embrace right now.

Best Director

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Martin Scorsese, Silence

Or it could be:  Denzel Washington, Fences; Pablo Larrain, Jackie; Jeff Nichols, Loving; David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water; or Garth Davis, Lion

Predicted winner:  Damien Chazelle, La La Land.  Until the race shapes otherwise, I don’t have any reason to think that La La Land wouldn’t prevail here as well.

Best Actor

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Joel Edgerton, Loving

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Tom Hanks, Sully

Denzel Washington, Fences

Or it could be:  Andrew Garfield in either Hacksaw Ridge or Silence; Viggo Mortensen in Captain Fantastic; Warren Beatty in Rules Don’t Apply; or Matthew McConaughey in Gold

Predicted winner:  Denzel Washington in Fences.  He won a Tony award for his performance in the play, and advance word on his performance is strong.  Casey Affleck is a good alternative, although I think he’s destined to finish in second.

Best Actress

Annette Bening, 20^th Century Women

Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Emma Stone, La La Land

Or it could be:  Meryl Streep in Florence Foster Jenkins; Isabelle Huppert in Elle; Amy Adams in Arrival; Kate Beckinsale in Love & Friendship; or Jessica Chastain in Miss Sloane

Predicted winner:  Natalie Portman in Jackie, unless Emma Stone starts to pick up momentum.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Liam Neeson, Silence

Or it could be:  Peter Sarsgaard in Jackie; Dev Patel in Lion; Mykelti Williamson in Fences; Stephen Henderson in Fences; or Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals

Predicted winner:  I guess Liam Neeson, but nobody has seen his performance yet.  I’m not sure who would be an alternative.

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis, Fences

Greta Gerwig, 20^th Century Women

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Or it could be:  Molly Shannon in Other People; Janelle Monae in Hidden Figures; Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures; Margo Martindale in The Hollars; or Lupita Nyong’o in Queen of Katwe

Predicted winner:  It looks like Viola Davis has this sewn up in November. 

Best Original Screenplay

Captain Fantastic

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Or it could be:  Zootopia, 20^th Century Women, Jackie, The Lobster, or Loving

Predicted winner:  Manchester by the Sea, but I could see it being Moonlight if they like it enough.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival

Fences

Lion

Love & Friendship

Silence

Or it could be:  Hidden Figures, Sully, Indignation, Hacksaw Ridge, or Live By Night

Predicted winner:  Fences, unless Silence impresses.

Predicted winners in the other categories (except the shorts, because those are too unpredictable):

Best Editing:  La La Land (alt:  Silence)

Best Cinematography:  La La Land (alt:  Silence)

Best Costume Design:  Florence Foster Jenkins (alt:  Jackie)

Best Production Design:  La La Land (alt:  Silence)

Best Makeup and Hair:  Silence (alt:  Florence Foster Jenkins)

Best Visual Effects:  The Jungle Book (alt:  Rogue One)

Best Original Score:  Arrival (alt:  Jackie)

Best Original Song: “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (alt: “City of Stars” from La La Land)

Best Foreign Language Film:  Toni Erdman (alt:  The Idol)

Best Animated Feature:  Zootopia (alt:  Moana)

Best Documentary Feature:  13^th (alt:  Weiner)