Final Oscar Predictions: How many will La La Land win?

Unlike in recent years, there isn't that much in question as to which film will dominate at the Oscars.  Last year, predictions seemed to suggest that The Revenant would win Best Picture, but critics darling Spotlight pulled through.  The year before, the industry favorite Birdman triumphed over the former front-runner, Boyhood.

La La Land has felt like an obvious Best Picture winner since it premiered at several film festivals in the fall.  It certainly felt inevitable when I saw it back in November; if anything, I underestimated how big of a juggernaut the film could become.  Today the question isn't what is going to win Best Picture, but instead how many awards will La La Land accumulate.  The record is 11 wins, shared by 1959's Ben-Hur, 1997's Titanic, and 2003's The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.  I'm cautiously predicting La La Land to miss the record by one, settling for "only" 10 Oscars.

Here are my predictions and preferences.

BEST PICTURE
Should Win: Moonlight
Will Win: La La Land

BEST DIRECTOR
Should Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land

BEST LEADING ACTOR
Should Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences (but it’ll be a close race between him and Casey Affleck)

BEST LEADING ACTRESS
Should Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should Win: Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should Win: Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should Win: The Lobster
Will Win: Manchester by the Sea

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should Win: Moonlight
Will Win: Moonlight

BEST FILM EDITING
Should Win: Hell or High Water
Will Win: La La Land

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should Win: Silence
Will Win: La La Land

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Should Win: La La Land
Will Win: La La Land

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Should Win: Jackie
Will Win: La La Land

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Should Win: Star Trek Beyond
Will Win: A Man Called Ove

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Should Win: Moonlight
Will Win: La La Land

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Should Win: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”, La La Land
Will Win: “City of Stars”, La La Land

BEST SOUND EDITING
Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge

BEST SOUND MIXING
Should Win: Arrival
Will Win: La La Land

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Will Win: The Jungle Book

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Will Win: Kubo and the Two Strings (although it could just as easily be Zootopia)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Should Win: 13th
Will Win: 13th (smart money is on O.J.: Made in America, but I’m betting against it because I don’t think voters are going to sit through that 8 hour documentary)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Should Win:  Toni Erdmann

Will Win: The Salesman

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Should Win:  Abstain

Will Win: Piper

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Should Win:  Abstain

Will Win: Sing

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
Should Win:  Abstain

Will Win: Joe’s Violin